Sticky Joker

About Sticky Joker

“Just better margins,” he says of that decision. “I think it’s more defendable. It’s the area that fewer people can do well. So I think it’s more defendable margin, more ability to get long-term contracts and beneficial positions.”

Singles can be profitable, but parlay pricing requires the market maker to calculate the correlations between multiple outcomes and respond dynamically to individual requests. It is a skill set built over years in the sharper regions of the existing sports betting ecosystem.

Marantelli identifies White Swan and Susquehanna as two firms operating at industrial scale in parlays, with Jump Trading, Mojo and DL Trading among the possible leading group. Below them are numerous smaller syndicates, some managing between $5 million and $10 million, alongside sports-specific specialists.

How to play Sticky Joker

The biggest new uncertainty in US sports betting is prediction markets. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion in betting handle through US regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion handle recorded in 2025. These figures refer to the amount wagered, not sportsbook revenue.

Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

About Sticky Joker

As ever, I am indebted to too many people to mention, but Derek, Bill, Jasmine and every one of the Calvin Ayre team, as well as Calvin himself of course, have all shown a lot of faith in me to carry the torch and I hope I’ve done them all credit.  

Finally, I really want to thank you, the reader who has kept coming back to find out what else I’m writing about each day, week, month and year. It is you to whom I write, constant reader, and if you’ve enjoyed what you’ve read, then feel free to follow me on Twitter, where a new destination will shortly be announced. 

I’m as excited about my own future as the future of poker itself and while I’m changing seats, I’ll be staying at the table.