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Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
About Sugar Drop
As Spain celebrated the successful end of their campaign, Kambi was reflecting on a significant achievement of its own. For the sports betting technology provider, the tournament represented a major technological milestone: its first World Cup traded entirely by AI.
Across 104 matches and more than 100 million bets, AI handled every stage of the pricing lifecycle – from ingesting data and creating the offering to managing liabilities and settling bets. The platform recorded zero downtime, delivered an operator trading margin of 18% and, during the final alone, processed more than one million unique bet combinations.
Kambi had set itself the ambitious target of delivering the entire tournament through AI. By the time Spain lifted the trophy, it had provided compelling evidence that automated trading could withstand the scale and intensity of sport’s biggest betting event while improving the experience offered to operators and their customers.
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Entain has issued a stark warning in a letter addressed to Prime Minister Andy Burnham about the potential impact of a proposed increase to the Machine Games Duty (MGD).
Ahead of the government’s Autumn Budget in October, Entain CEO Stella David cautioned that doubling the current MGD rate to 40% could result in widespread closures of betting shops and significant job losses, while potentially reducing tax revenues for the government.
A potential MGD rise was first reported in the The Financial Times, as Chancellor John Healey is allegedly looking to raise the tax, on the recommendation of the Social Market Foundation, which proposed the increase in a recent report.
