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Notably for highly engaging verticals light online slots, if players are receiving a smaller-than-expected RTP (return to player), or bonuses have been restricted, they could again transition to an illegal offering where there are no such restrictions.
As has been flagged in previous reports, Regulus highlighted that the top 1% of active customers accounts for almost 50% of black market revenue across Europe. This follows a similar trend across licensed gambling as the report highlights “online gambling is a consumer discretionary expenditure item. This means a large proportion of expenditure is concentrated into a relatively small number of players.”
In its market-specific breakdown, the report noted a “rapid reduction in channelling” in the UK, following the increased use of affordability checks.
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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.
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Despite the revenue growth, land-based gross profit dipped 0.7% to R2 billion, largely due to the heightened investment in marketing.
“Looking ahead, as land-based gaming evolves into a more digital and experience-led environment, these initiatives, together with the implementation of a low-cost operating model, are expected to improve performance, increase market share, profitability and generate stronger returns over the medium term,” the company said.
Alongside gaming, hospitality revenue rose 2.8% to R1.29 billion despite an impact of around R20 million from war-related cancellations.
