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Santos’ case represents the most severe among four disciplinary settlements announced by Kalshi, which has faced increasing scrutiny concerning insider knowledge risks and event outcome influence by market participants.
Santos is not the only individual disciplined for trying to game the prediction market system. Ben Midgley, a Republican candidate for the governorship of Maine, admitted purchasing under $1,000 worth of contracts related to his campaign. He accepted a $5,434.30 fine and a three-year suspension.
Meanwhile, Laurie Buckhout, a candidate for a North Carolina congressional seat, was fined $2,589.96 and suspended for three years after buying under $1,000 of contracts linked to her race.
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“Prediction markets think they can mess with Texas,” York said. “I hope you prove them wrong.”
In response, DeNault noted that prediction markets regulated on the federal level by the CFTC offer a “safer alternative” than many offshore operators that lack the requisite consumer protections.
“You can go the combative route and ban something that’s federally regulated,” he said. “But what you’ll end up with is a bunch of customers in Texas just going offshore.”
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Japan’s gambling landscape has remained an enigma. It began as a seismic opportunity sought after by international casino giants following the enactment of its Integrated Resort Implementation Law in 2018, but as progress slowed potential bidders withdrew, and MGM Osaka emerged as the only new kid on the IR block, with a launch date of 2030.
Now, with Japan promising to open two more IR licences in 2027, ambitious bidders are craning their necks for a leg up over the competition. But Japan has telegraphed mixed messaging on the casino industry.
Depsite it having liberalised gambling in pursuit of the economic benefits that casinos can bring, its regulatory architecture and deeply ingrained social attitudes are not particuarly pro gambling.
