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The biggest new uncertainty in US sports betting is prediction markets. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion in betting handle through US regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion handle recorded in 2025. These figures refer to the amount wagered, not sportsbook revenue.

Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

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While Alabama ranks 27th among the 50 states in population, the limited availability of gaming makes the state attractive to companies like VGW.

Alabama has only parimutuel betting, small games of chance for charitable purposes, and electronic bingo machines at three tribal casinos in Atmore, Montgomery, and Wetumpka.

According to its annual report, VGW generated revenue of $4.76 billion in its 2025 fiscal year, resulting in a net profit of $428 million. Despite operating in fewer states, VGW’s platforms grew profits and revenue from its 2024 fiscal year.

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